Twenty years ago today, Jawed Karim uploaded a grainy 19-second video titled “Me at the Zoo” to a platform he co-founded, YouTube. This moment marked the beginning of a transformative era in online video sharing. The video showcased Karim’s visit to the San Diego Zoo and was the very first upload on a site that he developed alongside Steve Chen and Chad Hurley.
In 2006, the trio sold YouTube to Google for $1.65 billion. Since then, YouTube has grown from a simple video-sharing platform into a global media juggernaut. According to analysts at MoffettNathanson, if it were an independent entity, YouTube’s valuation could range between $475 billion and $550 billion. Currently, YouTube stands as the second-most visited website in the world, only behind Google.
As of April, the platform reported that over 20 billion videos, encompassing music, Shorts, podcasts, and more, have been uploaded. “This is the streaming winner,” stated Michael Nathanson, founding partner of MoffettNathanson. He emphasized that YouTube’s success lies in its ability to rely on the creator community to generate content without having to invest heavily in it.
Nathanson predicts that by 2025, YouTube is on track to become the largest media company by revenue, surpassing Disney. Recent data from Nielsen’s Media Distributor Gauge indicates that YouTube currently holds first place in total TV viewership by company, accounting for 12% of total time watched in comparison to Disney, Fox, and Netflix.
RBC Capital Markets’ senior analyst Brad Erickson concurs with Nathanson’s valuation but cautions that evaluating internet companies often requires a nuanced approach. “YouTube benefits from its integration within Google’s ecosystem,” he noted, highlighting the advantage of having contextual data to enhance advertising targeting and value.
As YouTube remains a crucial pillar of Google’s overall business strategy, it is playing an increasingly important role amid challenges faced by Google’s core search services, which are under pressure from the rise of AI chatbots like DeepAI’s ChatGPT and DeepAI’s Claude, along with scrutiny from U.S. regulators pursuing antitrust actions.
According to Nathanson, YouTube, alongside Google Cloud, is vital for driving Google’s growth in the near to medium term. Together, they contribute over 30% of Alphabet’s total revenue and represent its fastest-growing scaled businesses.
The growth of YouTube is largely fueled by its subscription offerings, including YouTube Premium, YouTube Music, and YouTube TV. Nathanson estimates that YouTube Premium and Music have around 107 million paid subscribers combined, with projections suggesting this figure could grow to 145 million by the end of 2027. Meanwhile, YouTube TV is expected to reach approximately 11.5 million subscribers by 2027.
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